Northumbria Police Commissioner Kim McGuinnes and North of Tyne Mayor Jamie Driscoll need to unite to map the forthcoming recession.

Waiting with baited breath to see the real effects on people of the forthcoming Covid and Brexit based recession when coupled with the Tories changes to planning law to suit the offer made to bring between 3-5m Hong Kong residents to the UK is a time for some serious reflection.


Living in an area with a rapidly changing identity made up of a City region and an ancient County we will be seen as an area to experiment with by the current Government.


Some of us more elderly laymen can remember the Thatcher and Norman Tebbut eras and how people from this area were used for the ‘get on yer bike’ experiments and we know how close this Government is to that historic way of thinking.


As a nation moving rapidly towards isolation from our neighbours, to produce enough food to feed us all this current Government needs to move many landowners from being Euro supported agriculturalists over to mass producing horticulturalists, but to do that they need a ready supply of cheap labour to encourage the farming squires to embrace the new economy.


Boris Johnson probably believes he will will get that labour market fixed in using Hong Kong residents escaping the pressure to conform being exerted by mainland China, but we must remember that if that is his plan up to five million people will need places to live.


Dominic Cummings has been working on the post Brexit changes to planning law required to implement such a plan. Under his dream it will be easier to replace existing buildings and construct upwards. Greenbelts will also be exposed to change through the adoption of a zonal planning system and it will become the norm to change the designation of property from Commercial to Residential if need exists.


Need does exist and it exists everywhere, Shelter tell us that one million people are currently in need of suitable housing and at least 300,000 new social homes are needed before the current administration leaves office to ensure a standstill situation, leaving new residents and current displaced families in exactly the same position as when this Government arrived.
To access funds to house those in greatest need Authorities need to know where that need is. It will be a rapidly growing need way in excess of anything we have known over the last 35yrs as the expected recession arrives with a wave of the governments right hand and the protection of furlough turns to universal credit.


As we all know poverty and homelessness leads to rising crime rates and both will increase rapidly over the coming months.


Therefore we the laymen believe that the mapping of poverty to access funds needs to be joint effort from the PCC and the North of Tyne Mayor and has to start today. It needs to map those in the poverty trap and those close to it so that Town and Country planners can work to locate sites and produce the very flexible housing plans for the future to assist in where the new horticulture units housing and transport links to serve horticulture need to be placed with the A1 and A69 corridors being easy Government targets for both.
 

Northumberland’s ‘Black Holes’ Sci-fi or Fact?

 

A couple of weeks ago Northumberland County Council reported to its secret cabinet that the Government had left them with a £12M Black-Hole in their accounts through Covid 19 and then spun that as news out into the local press.

Running stories based on Black-Holes has become a regular feature of the management style adopted by Councillor Oliver of Corbridge who holds the finance portfolio on Northumberland County Councils one party only ‘secret cabinet’. He located his first black hole back in 2017 a few weeks after his Tories took office and began paying handsome sums to officers they thought may not share their loyalty to them and those who may question their newly adopted delivery tea

Councillor Olivers initial black hole wasn’t recorded in the first set of accounts put out from the current Tory regime nor did the external auditor comment on it in his annual report so we need to ask as county Laymen, when does a black hole in the accounts become a recognised black hole and why has the Chairperson of internal audit Councillor Ms Georgina Hill of Berwick not adopted a process for the true recognition of the matter.

The answer to that may lay in the fact that Councillor Ms Hill has been noted in a report by an outgoing Nationally recognised external auditor of running an internal audit committee that does not show any independence from the administration whatsoever.

We will give a couple of examples here:
Councillor Olivers first announced black hole in 2017 was not looked at by Ms. Hills audit committee in any detail as no schedule explaining his accountancy problem was put forward through the internal audit process. Therefore the scrutiny of this item did not take place at committee or through the corporate scrutiny panel of the Council but it was spun out into the mainstream media.

Also the Council through its described non-independence has employed four heads of finance in the last three years of office (a form of tantrum management maybe? ).This has led to possible black holes being missed from Ms Hills agenda such as the dreadful change from successful arms length company ARCH to mediocre Advance Northumberland where the huge costs of change from one to the other were reported by the external auditor but not correctly brought for debate and scrutiny to the internal audit committee by neither the Internal Auditor nor Ms Hills. This could be a correct example of a black hole that was clearly missed through the non-independence of her and her internal audit team and committee.

When coupled with the massive losses made by Advance Northumberland in the last two financial years Councillor’s Oliver and Hills missed three opportunities to report and have recorded true ‘black-holes’ in the accounts but didn’t bother as we laymen suspect they were caused through the political management of the current administration and we can’t have that reported can we?

So back to our original question, when is a black hole a true black hole and when is it just sci-fi. I bet the Government audit office will be checking on Councillor Olivers latest outburst before settling on a figure the Government owes Northumberland as they will not have missed their questionable recent financial history.




 

Philanthropy and sitting like the Jack of Spades won’t deliver ‘best value’ for the Council taxpayer.

When Northumberland Labour last won enough seats to form a minority administration in May 2013,following a five year coalition between the Tories and the LibDems they had the Governments auditors look at the books to locate any anomalies to ensure they could deliver ‘Best Value’ for Northumberland’s Council taxpayers.

A number of the more serious issues revolved around the finance of the Children Services and the viability of some schools. The Council then began a deep dig to locate the full extent of the problem.

It was found that funding for schools delivering 6^th forms struggled with finance as young people were disappearing from the system County-wide to take courses out of County and £3.3m of Council taxpayers cash was being used to support the demise of the Counties high schools.

It was found that young people were being furnished with first class rail travel passes as well as unlimited travel bus passes travelling to private education establishments in Durham and out of County colleges to the detriment of its own

Labour pushed on with a plan to aid schools without damaging he opportunities for special educational needs children and those who could least afford to travel to take courses that would benefit them in the future and the taxpayers bill dropped from £3.3m to an affordable figure that diminished over three years down to £240,000 whilst high school budgets recovered as students stayed local to take their higher level exams.

 The Council changed hands over to the Tories during 2017

Then during early 2018 the penniless philanthropist using taxpayers cash Councillor Wayne Daley, who was in the middle of a battle with Tynedale ‘Stars’ education group, decided to unlock the Council Policy without rewriting it and give ‘Free Travel’ passes to young people if they would pay the first £50 to cover the administration costs of the scheme

The expenditure in the first year, 2018-2019 soared to £706,000 and is racing upwards towards their previous coalition spend. In year one of the ‘freedom’ an additional 748 young people joined the scheme. When coupled with their own £50, £671 was paid towards each travel pass for students roughly the same cost as a commercial pass from Arriva and the Counties other bus providers for passes which cover Northumberland, Newcastle and Tyne & Wear unlimited for the full academic year.

The other £241,000 cover the costs for 129 young people who are either SEND or members of lower income families.

This is certainly a ‘one eyed jack’ management arrangement.

As described by the outgoing external auditor the lack of independence in internal audit will mean this costly change will never be looked at clearly nor properly by the internal audit committee but as Council taxpayers questions should be asked what are the Tories attempting to not tell you.

As Laymen we would like to thank the TPA for the FOI covering this matter and hope that schools affected will openly report their concerns as the delivery of Best Value also affects them.

 

Items for editors:

https://www.northumberland.gov.uk/NorthumberlandCountyCouncil/media/Document-store/School%20Transport/Post-16-Transport-Policy-2020-21.pdf

Conservatives Killed ARCH but can’t deliver best value with its replacement ADVANCE Northumberland.

Arch, the Northumberland County Council owned company who’s reputation was poisoned by Northumberland Conservatives in their campaign to win the Local Government elections in 2017 was not scrapped as described in Councillor Peter Jackson the Tory leader’s manifesto. It was simply replaced by their own company ADVANCE Northumberland.


Unlike the very successful company ARCH who even delivered a rural Grant system on the governments behalf due to infighting among the Tories the company ADVANCE has been shown to fail in all its endeavours and lost £4m during 2018-19.


Following that failure they should have been able to drive improvements through the simple art of planning for success, but their plan failed in its aims and they were caught out by their external auditor, who has told the public in his letter to the Council and the company that they have not delivered best value for their taxpayers and do not allow their audit process any independence and act in the same manner as its parent the Council.


Its also believed by many that when the company changed from ARCH to ADVANCE the Tories in their infinite wisdom forgot to protect its Directors and indemnify them from responsibility in the event of losses. The ducking out of top Tories from the Board of Directors including the Leader and his Deputy who’s joint aim it was to ‘scrap ARCH’ shows there may be some truth in those beliefs.


The auditors letter has been reproduced for this article and the link to companies house placed below so you the taxpayer can view the high profile bailouts.


The question has to be: will the next Labour Council choose to scrap ADVANCE?

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/11161983/filing-history

CONSERVATIVES TO MAKE STATE PENSIONERS PAY FOR COVID AND BREXIT

Tory spin on pension figures is the rebirth of ‘Blame Game Austerity’

According to Government figures not adjusted for Covid 19 deaths there are 11,930,000 people of State Pension Age. 6,487,000 Women and 5,443,000 men in 2020.

The Tory spin doctors are attempting to inform the Working Age population of the UK that state pensioners receive £175.20 per week. This level of payment is only received by ‘New Pensioners’ who reached their state pension age this year, who in the main are women who have waited an additional 6 years to receive their pension. 

Most pensioners, approximately 11M receive less and for many older pensions much less.

The average state pension payment in the UK is £134.00 per week.
The Chancellor of the exchequer wants to freeze the increase in pensions (known as the Triple Lock formula) for two years or more in order to pay for his Governments incurred costs in handling the Covid 19 pandemic.

The triple lock ensures the state pension increases each year in line with the rate of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5 per cent – whichever is higher.

State Pensions rose by 3.9% in mid 2020 due to the Governments poor handling of wage inflation factors last year.

The Government is preparing to let the economy go into free fall after it achieves its goal of a no-deal Brexit which is looking more likely as each month passes.

The Office of Budget Responsibility has released figures showing that state pensions will rise by 2.5% in 2021 and may rise by 18.3% in 2022. If the Government does not control wage inflation.

The Chancellor seems to be planning to use wage inflation for those remaining in work after Brexit to support growth in the service sector that will be suffering stagnation and massively high levels of unemployment by 2022.

The Office of Budget Responsibility spin doctors are using the top rate state pension for brand new pensioners as the base calculator for all pensioners and the Chancellor has followed suit, his news spin includes pensions will rise by £37.20 per week costing the nation an additional £34Bn by 2020.

Based on the actual average state pension and the actions of quantitative easing by the Bank of England yesterday who in true Keynesian style released £100Bn of ‘new money’ into the economy to negate the effects of inflation caused through Covid 19 and smooth a no-deal Brexit the cost to the nation ensuring economic free fall is avoided.

Real state pensions growth to protect the elderly through the triple lock would be 2.5% in 2021 a rise in the average payment of £3.35 and a 3.4% rise in 2022 of £4.66 would take the base average up to £142.02.

2022 begins the waning years of the baby boom with less people becoming state pensioners and with the average death rates in poorer areas going into a period of growth through more elderly people (700,000 predicted) falling into energy poverty then the new average, taking the rise for new pensioners into consideration should sit around £146.20 as new pensioners will receive £185.54 no where near the £212.45 being spun out by Government.

Taking the fall in numbers into consideration and the backwatching from the Bank of England the real rise will be in line with the OBR’s growth figures of £4Bn.

The treasury needs to ensure state pensioners are not left behind in the scramble for cash after Brexit and the Chancellor needs to concentrate on resolving wage and energy price inflation and not attack those who’s sweat and toil have given this nation the wealth it has.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=kukKpqd_B2c




 

Fears of Lower Aggregate Demand may bring on post-Covid and Brexit Stagflation

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With the social media platforms alight with raging cost of food from our primary supermarkets and the quietened by Government media guru’s last quarter fall in UKGDP to -20% and when coupled with Gove’s constant denials of all and everything on differing political platforms we seem to have missed the slippage into a ‘Bear Market’ mentality among economists.

The Dow Jones index agreed that the Western economies had slipped into an uncompromising position on March 11^th 2020 when the stock exchanges across most major countries had caused the index to fall by 20% from its previous 12 month average.

This led the very well respected economist Lord Robert Skidelsky of Warwick University to speak out on Bloomberg TV on the possibility of the UK entering a period of lower demand, that as the real unemployment levels following the Covid 19 Pandemic and the evident slippage by the Johnson/Cummings Government into a no deal Brexit will lead the nation by the nose into a period of ‘Lower Aggregate Demand’ and inflation similar to the 1970’s ‘Stagflation’ period when as the inflation reached its peak brought misery to millions as we experienced 15% mortgage rates to keep savings at a reasonable level and taxes down.

This ‘new wave’ Tory Government made up of many neoliberals who embrace market-oriented reform policies such as eliminating price controls, deregulating capital markets, lowering trade barriers and reducing state influence in the economy through austerity and privatisation among other reforming policies are driving the no-deal agenda which economists believe will lead to raging inflation and high unemployment.

In Northumberland 34,000 people are currently furloughed, receiving 80% of their ‘normal salary’ we can’t predict their future prospects as a huge percentage of those people work in the Tyneside Conurbation and are not measured in the County GDP figures, but needless to say we may find that matters begin to unravel from 15^th June 2020 the change from furlough to Universal Credit will begin for some, and with 10% of under 24’s already unemployed the scene for spending less will see its curtains rapidly raising.
 

Conservatives preparing to Concrete over your County Cummings and Jenrick about to change planning laws to favour developers.

The change over from Theresa May to Boris Johnson as Leader of the Conservative Party has changed the way top Tories think about managing the UK. For years the Conservatives have sat back on matters that drive progress at a local level running campaign after campaign on their wish to control planning in their locale and conserve what they have. Its often been said that you can tell a good Tory by the amount of ‘brown furniture’ they have in their homes, and in many respects that true. But Boris Johnson thinks completely differently to most of his cohorts and on the advice of his man Dominic Cummings in forcing an election on the nation last December called it right and damaged his enemies beyond belief. That campaign was extremely costly in cash term to the Tory party but on installing Mr Johnson into No. 10 his Cummings his prime advisor came up with a plan to hook up the Tories in the long term with a sector who’s profits have grown and grown for the last seven decades, Construction! The construction industry has only one hurdle to cross to ensure it grows even faster in future,’Planning Laws’. They are a very simple process that attempts to ensure the long term aims of Councils and the wants of the Nation are fulfilled whist protecting people and the Countryside whenever possible. Hiccup’s in Planning Law can take years of wrangling to resolve and can be extremely costly to developers in both time and cash, cash that they can’t donate to the Tory Party because its locked up. Its been reported that Mr Cummings the PM’s notorious senior advisor, had identified a shake up of the planning system as the Tories biggest priority as soon as Mr Johnson assumed the throne as Prime Minister with a huge majority. He saw it as a major obstruction to growth in one the countries largest sectors, the housing market. The PM has also told Parliament that he is going to launch a series of infrastructure projects to kick start the economy after Covid 19 and Brexit and his experience of planning in a previous life as the Mayor of London coupled with his parties HS2 and Cross rail arguments have steered him towards acceptance of the Cummings plan. Cummings who is a very clever spin doctor has had Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick’s department work up new rules on the back of the Labour Party’s long term slogan when Councillors are arguing for more social housing, that of ‘People wish to live in towns and villages in which they were either born or brought up’. This is a major change from Conservative beliefs as it puts pressure on Parish Plans, Local Plans and Core Strategies but this is the direction that Policy Exchange the Tory right wing think tank wish to take Planning Law and the Conservative Government in the near future. To that end Ministers are waiting with baited breath to launch a White Paper that will delver change which will effect every City, Town and Village in England and change the way Utility Companies and Councils have to work in future. Leaked plans include the introduction of a zonal planning system and the use of ‘special planning zones which will allow developers to ’bypass’ the bureaucracy of the planning system and to start building almost as soon as they have done a deal on the land. Robert Jenrick when questioned said he ‘wants to rethink planning from its first principles’. Jenrick is pushing a massive and dramatic extension of permitted development rights where developers can see vacant buildings demolished then immediately replaced with housing without the need for planning permission. Developments will be fast tracked through the system if they meet high design standards, putting pressure on village and County Town settings to accept higher population numbers into their communities, something that will be hated by the ‘Brown Furniture’ property owners. Its to be followed on by more bubble thinking from the Tories through the creation of special planning zones that would see Government investment in infratructure to open up sites for private development and zonal planning systems will stop your local Council being involved in planning outcomes. Jenrick is expecting the Tories ‘New Wave’ MP’s whom are mostly urban based to carry this white paper through its various Parliamentary stages, then the new Tories can sit back and watch their coffers grow. https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/rethinking-the-planning-system-for-the-21st-century/

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/872091/Planning_for_the_Future.pdf